A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
