Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
